One of the earlier scenarios for container shipping’s 2023 peak season went like this: Importers would get cocky and keep much of their business in the spot market. Shipping lines would heavily curtail trans-Pacific transport capacity. America’s inventory overhang would evaporate just as holiday imports ramped up. Spot rates would jump — just as they did in 2020’s peak season after COVID lockdowns — and importers without sufficient contract coverage would get caught out.
No one’s really talking about that one anymore.
