The traditional wisdom is that geopolitical chaos is good for shipping demand. Trade patterns are disrupted and become less efficient. Cargo must travel longer distances. Rates rise.
But Niels Rasmussen, chief analyst at shipping association BIMCO, believes Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will be bad for shipping demand.
The war “will hurt growth in all shipping segments,” he maintained in a report published Monday. Citing estimates that the conflict could shave 1% off global GDP growth, he said: “No matter the specific Russia and Ukraine export developments, this will hurt growth projections for all shipping sectors.”
