Going into 2022, we expect trade growth rates to return to their pre-pandemic levels in line with a continued but weakened global economic recovery. 2021 was an exceptional year driven by pandemic-related catch-up effects. For this year, we pencil in a growth rate in merchandise world trade of 4.1%, while we expect world GDP growth to come in at 4.4%.
Despite ongoing supply chain frictions and average containerised transport costs expected to remain high, a shift by consumers back into services will only be moderate in 2022 because of Covid caution.